Daily Market Dispatch – June 25, 2025 Overview Crypto markets are in wait-and-see mode as broader sentiment firms around a tentative ceasefire and dovish undertones from the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin remains above $106,000, while equities and commodities trade cautiously ahead of a packed data calendar. With quarter-end options expiring Friday, positioning may become more tactical before any decisive breakout. Bitcoin Bitcoin held firm near $106,000, navigating a narrow band between $103,000–$108,000 that has persisted throughout June. While recent price action appears range-bound, structural dynamics suggest undercurrents building ahead of this week’s expiry. Bitcoin’s dominance over the total crypto market cap has climbed back to 62%, as capital flows continue to favor it over smaller assets. The upcoming options expiry, worth over $14B, may serve as a volatility accelerant, with $102,000 a key level. Yet, inflows and ETF interest suggest stronger hands are accumulating on dips. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum traded just above $2,400, lagging Bitcoin’s recovery as broader altcoins continued to lose momentum. However, demand for Ether remains strong at the institutional level, with spot Ethereum ETFs surpassing $4 billion in cumulative net inflows as of June 23 — a quarter of which came in just the last 15 sessions. XRP was unchanged, while Solana posted marginal gains, but sentiment across Layer 1s remained mixed as Bitcoin’s rising dominance continued to crowd out alternative assets and delay any credible rotation. That said, XRP has emerged as a relative outperformer, with its holder base nearly doubling since October. Should ETF approval materialize, XRP may not only consolidate its position but also revive broader interest in regulated altcoin products. Macro & Institutional Fed Chair Powell maintained a cautious tone, signaling no rush to adjust rates while warning that tariffs could distort prices and policy. Labor data continues to soften, yet markets still price in around 60 bps of cuts by year-end. The dollar slipped as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held, prompting a modest rotation into risk assets. Gold edged higher on dollar weakness and lingering uncertainty, while oil rebounded off recent lows but remains pressured by easing supply risks. Markets remain stable but directionless, with tariffs and geopolitics still active variables. Separately, the Fed removed “reputational risk” from its bank oversight playbook — clearing the way for regulated crypto banking relationships. Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s openness to crypto services when risk controls are in place. Arizona advanced a bill to establish a state crypto reserve fund using seized assets, while South Korea’s top banks moved closer to launching a won-pegged stablecoin through a new consortium. Looking Ahead This week’s key data includes U.S. jobless claims on Thursday, the Core PCE inflation print on Friday, and final Q1 GDP revisions. Alongside the $14 billion BTC options expiry, these events could reset short-term risk appetite. While current positioning appears balanced, the combination of macro data and geopolitical fragility could act as a catalyst for renewed volatility. Market participants should be prepared for a shift in tone as quarter-end approaches. — Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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